Bear Market, Big Moves?
Ethan Sullivan
| 19-01-2026

· News team
Retiring early seems liberating—until a sharp market drop threatens that freedom. A bear market doesn’t only test returns; it tests discipline, patience, and the ability to ignore noise.
The most reliable antidote is a written investing game plan that tells exactly what to do with cash, how fast to buy, and when to slow down.
Why Plans Matter
A plan replaces impulse with process. Without rules, investors tend to chase rallies, freeze during drops, or sell simply to stop the discomfort. A sturdy plan sets targets for liquidity, risk exposure, and purchase size. It also defines the real goal: staying invested long enough for compounding to do its job.
Set Priorities
Early retirees often prioritize durability over showy gains. When income is optional, a 35%–40% hit can force bad choices, like cutting lifestyle or selling assets at poor prices. A good plan starts with protection: build buffers first, then take risk only with capital that won’t be needed for near-term expenses.
Size The Cash
To make the plan tangible, pick a “deployment pool,” such as $250,000 from savings, a property sale, or a bonus year. Then decide how much will be invested during a drawdown versus held back. A common rule is investing up to 80% across a few months, while keeping 20% reserved for surprises.
Keep Liquidity
Liquidity is both comfort and optionality. Holding at least six months of living costs in safe, easy-to-access instruments can prevent forced selling of stocks during a slump that drags on for months. This buffer also makes it easier to buy when prices fall, because bills are covered, emergencies are handled, and emotions stay calmer.
Use Treasuries
Short-term government bonds can anchor the defensive bucket. Yields in the 4%–4.5% range can beat idle cash while avoiding stock-style swings. These securities also tend to trade with deep liquidity, making exits simple. For many households, the state-tax treatment of Treasury interest can raise the effective yield, especially in high-tax states.
Shift Allocations
As risk assets get cheaper, the defensive bucket can be trimmed. For example, Treasuries might start at 30% of deployable cash, then slide to 20% once valuations look less stretched. The aim isn’t perfect timing; it’s creating room to add risk when prices become more appealing, without draining the safety net.
Buy Equities
Equities can move from about 25% of deployable cash to 35% during a meaningful pullback. Instead of a single lump sum, use a staged approach: $1,000 to $5,000 purchases after each 0.5% to 1% drop. This turns panic into a checklist and reduces the chance of investing everything too early.
Watch Valuations
After two strong years, markets can seem expensive when the index trades near 22 times next-year earnings. A reset closer to 19 times may look healthier, yet another leg down is always possible. The plan should assume volatility continues, so purchases stay measured and the remaining cash buffer can be deployed if prices overshoot.
Add Private Growth
A 20% allocation to private-growth funds can diversify the ride, since values update less frequently than public markets. That calmer price path helps some investors stay consistent. The trade-off is limited liquidity and wider outcome ranges, particularly when fundraising slows and exit timelines stretch. Position sizing matters more than storytelling here.
Lean Real Assets
A 25% allocation to real estate can make sense when pricing looks discounted and income potential is attractive. Selectivity is crucial: markets with heavy new supply can soften, while tighter markets may hold up better. If property already represents a large share of total net worth, new buys should be smaller to avoid concentration risk.
Education Slice
Set aside a small amount—perhaps 0.1% of deployable cash—for financial education and tools. The dollars are tiny compared with a portfolio, but the impact can be large: better tax decisions, clearer risk limits, and fewer emotional mistakes. A single avoided panic sale can pay back years of learning costs.
Track The Rules
Make the game plan measurable. Write target percentages, maximum weekly buying pace, and a trigger for pausing purchases (for example, once allocations hit targets or prices recover sharply). Keep a simple log of buys and reasons, and review monthly—not hourly. Consistency comes from routine, not constant checking.
Conclusion
A resilient bear-market strategy balances defense and offense: protect liquidity, hold a stabilizing bond sleeve, add equities in tranches, and diversify thoughtfully with private and real assets. The real victory is executing the plan even when emotions spike. Which single rule—purchase size, cash buffer, or review cadence—would most improve discipline in the next downturn?